Morgan Stanley raised its iron ore outlook for this year and 2017 after prices rallied in the first six months, saying that the top suppliers in Australia are managing the addition of new supply and steel demand in China will remain supported.
The 2016 forecast was increased 17 percent to $46 a metric ton and the outlook for next year was raised 13 percent to $42, according to a quarterly report. While the bank has boosted quarterly forecasts, its revised call of $35 a ton for the final three months of this year signals that prices are still expected to drop below last year’s trough.
Iron ore has surged this year after China added stimulus, boosting steel consumption in the top user and surprising many analysts who’d predicted a fourth year of losses. Morgan Stanley said that it’s possible the two biggest miners in Australia, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, are “adjusting” the addition of new supply to accommodate weaker market conditions.
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