Iron ore exports from Brazil and Australia are expected to keep rising despite low prices and China's falling demand, Goldman Sachs said in a report Friday.
"Seaborne iron ore demand is peaking, and apparent Chinese steel consumption in the year to September is down almost 7%," it said. "On that basis, rising exports are sustainable only as long as Brazilian and Australian ore is displacing product at the high end of the cost curve."
It said low iron ore prices are leading suppliers to shut surplus capacity.
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